Jurong West — the First District Announced
Background & Motivation
The government of Singapore has implemented the Circuit Breaker from 7 April 2020 to 1 June 2020 in order to contain and stop the spread of COVID-19. During the stated period, schools and workplaces are closed and social gatherings are prohibited. However, only essential amenities and services such as supermarkets, markets, food centres, banks, eldercare centres, and clinics are opened. Furthermore, public transportation is still in operation but with long waiting hours.
On 25 May 2020, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has revealed a list of the public places visited by the community COVID-19 cases for more than 30 minutes for the first time. The public places exclude residence, workplaces, healthcare facilities and public transport. Two places in Jurong West were visited by the infected cases according to the list. This list is highly due to the SafeEntry contact tracing platform introduced by the government of Singapore.
After seven days on 31 May 2020, the list of public places visited by community cases (Annex C2) has been updated. However, Jurong West is still the hot spot among the list with four locations as compared to Bukit Panjang, Bishan, Yishun, and others.
From the list, it is evidently shown that most of the places are either from the supermarkets or wet markets where the cases might have bought necessities to cook their meals at home during this Circuit Breaker period.
MOH has already notified those close contacts of the confirmed cases who have visited the above places and warned to people who have visited the above places during the specified timings should monitor their health closely for 14 days from their date of visit.
According to Johns Hopkins University, contact is defined as someone who had contact with a case while they were infectious during their illness or 2 days before their illness began. There are three kinds of contacts:
- Physical contact
- Close contact: within 2 metres between 10 to 30 minutes or more
- Proximate contact: more than 2 metres but in the same room for an extended period
Furthermore, it is important for the contacts to be socially responsible to quarantine themselves by staying at home for 14 days since the last contact with the confirmed cases who have visited the public places as listed above.
Anyhow, Jurong West was the first district to be identified and has the most locations listed in the MOH’s Annex C2. Furthermore, within the seven days of reporting, Jurong West has the most locations listed on 31 May 2020 and the first public place of Jurong West was visited on 17 May 2020 which ends the incubation period on 31 May 2020 as well. Hence, I am interested to gain insights to recommend COVID-19 transmission prevention in the Jurong West community by leveraging on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) concepts to do a comprehensive analysis via the utilisation of QGIS software. The datasets used in this mini project are static datasets.
Background of Jurong West
Jurong West district is split into nine subzones as stated in the table below and the land use of each subzone is different.
Out of a total area of 9.87 square kilometres, only 4.8 square kilometres of the district is used for residential, leading to a population density of 27,000 people per square kilometre.
Public Places that Cases Visited
The places in Jurong West that the cases have visited based on the MOH Annex C2 report from 25 May 2020 to 31 May 2020 are located in following map of Jurong West and its subzones.
Population Analysis
The population dataset is as of 2018 and the population demographic are categorised in five different age groups — 0 to 14 Years Old, 15 to 24 Years Old, 25 to 54 Years Old, 55 to 64 Years Old, and 65 Years Old & Above. The Proportion of Age Group to the Population of Jurong West (266,710 people)will be used in this analysis as it provides better visualisation.
Aged 0 to 14 Years Old
As compared to the other residential subzones, Jurong West Central has the highest proportion of children followed by both Yunnan and Hong Kah.
Aged 15 to 24 Years Old
As compared to the other residential subzones, Yunnan has the highest proportion of teenagers as compared to the other residential subzones followed by Jurong West Central, Hong Kah, and Taman Jurong.
Aged 25 to 54 Years Old
As compared to the other residential subzones, both Yunnan and Jurong West Central have the highest proportion of economically active adults followed by both Hong Kah and Taman Jurong.
Aged 55 to 64 Years Old
As compared to the other residential subzones, Yunnan has the highest proportion of adults aged 55 years old to 64 years old followed by Jurong West Central, Hong Kah, and Taman Jurong.
Aged 65 and Above
This age group has a higher risk of developing serious health complications if infected with COVID-19.
As compared to the other residential subzones, both Yunnan and Hong Kah have the highest proportion of elderly followed by both Jurong West Central and Taman Jurong.
From the above maps, we can see that the subzones of Yunnan, Hong Kah, Jurong West Central, and Taman Jurong have a higher proportion of age groups population than the residential subzones of Boon Lay Place, and Wenya. Furthermore, the public places that the cases visited are located in those four subzones.
Furthermore, there could be a correlation that the cases who visited the public places located in both Yunnan and Hong Kah belong to the elderly age group since these two subzones have the highest proportion of elderly age group and the public places are actually markets. Hence, it is recommended for the younger family members to help their elderly family members to get their necessities to reduce the transmission risk incurred on them.
Population Density
Population density of each subzone is calculated based on each subzone’s total population over the area of each subzone.
Among the six residential subzones outlets, Jurong West Central has the highest population density of 65,710 people per square kilometres. This is the subzone where the major shopping centre, Jurong Point, is located which is also one of the public places that the cases visited. Then, both Taman Jurong and Yunnan have population densities of 38,650 people per square kilometres and 33,435 people per square kilometres respectively. For both Boon Lay Place and Hong Kah, they have population densities of 30,220 people per square kilometres and 27,435 people per kilometres respectively. Lastly, Wenya has a population density of 4,195 people per square kilometres.
Anyhow, high density of residential population does not necessarily reflect that there is a high risk of transmitting the virus from human to human. Furthermore, so far, there are evidence that COVID-19 cases do not correlate with the population density.
Essential Services Analysis
The shopping cart indicators are extracted mainly based on the essential services such as markets, food centres, supermarkets, and pharmacies which are available during Circuit Breaker. However, there is a limitation where there is no data with regards to one of the public places that the cases visited — Blk 963 Jurong West Street 91 wet market.
Based on the Voronoi polygons of the essential services shown in the map, it can be highly concluded that the coverage of the essential services is increasingly narrowed in both subzones of Taman Jurong and Hong Kah which have population densities of 38,650 people per square kilometres and 27,435 people per square kilometres respectively. There could be a possibility of a high level of activity in the centre of Taman Jurong and Hong Kah where these activities were originally able to operate before the Circuit Breaker. Hence, the coverage of the essential services is increasingly narrowed in both subzones of Taman Jurong and Hong Kah.
Proximity Analysis
Other than residential buildings, the following amenities and services are still in operations during Circuit Breaker. However, there is a limitation where there is no availability of data with regards to bank branches as banks are in operation during the Circuit Breaker as well. Hence, this section of the report does not include the analysis of proximity to bank branches.
Proximity to Eldercare Centres
There are seven eldercare centres in Jurong West, mostly located in the southeast. These eldercare centres are only located in Boon Lay Place, Hong Kah, and Taman Jurong where four of them being concentrated in Taman Jurong. As such, the majority of the residents in Jurong West Central, Yunnan, and Wenya do not live within 1km of an eldercare centre. Hence, this shows that there is a growing number of elderly in Jurong West and most of them are located in the subzones of Hong Kah and Taman Jurong.
Furthermore, Hong Kah and Taman Jurong are the subzones where two public places that cases visited are located — Blk 505 Market & Food Centre Jurong West Street 91 in Hong Kah and NTUC Fairprice at Taman Jurong Shopping Centre. Thus, it is highly advised that the elderly living in these two subzones to stay at home during the infectious periods. Even when they need to get their necessities, it is highly recommended for them to ask someone younger to help them deliver the necessities in a contactless manner. This is to minimise the risk of infection to the elderly.
Proximity to Residential Buildings
It is expected that most of the area in Jurong West is less than 1km from residential areas as Jurong West is Singapore’s largest town in the west side of Singapore, where a large proportion of Singapore’s population lives in.
Proximity to Community Centres/Clubs
During the final week of Circuit Breaker, people are allowed to collect the anti-bacterial reusable face masks at their nearest community centres/clubs (CCs) via the service counter or the 24-hour vending machines until 14 June 2020. Hence, there might be risks where people travelling to CCs to queue up in redeeming the masks even though activities are cancelled in the CCs.
There are seven CCs in Jurong West where both Yunnan and Hong Kah each has two CCs while Jurong West Central, Boon Lay Place, and Taman Jurong each has one CC. However, Wenya is the only residential subzone which has no CC which could due to there being very few residential buildings located there.
Proximity to CHAS Clinics
CHAS clinics are clinics that enable all Singapore Citizens to receive subsidies for medical and/or dental care at participating General Practitioner (GP) and dental clinics. During this pandemic, medical services are definitely necessary. Fortunately, the healthcare facilities in Jurong West are widely available in the residential subzones.
Proximity to Essential Amenities (Markets/Supermarkets/Pharmacies)
Essential services such as supermarkets, markets, and pharmacies are available during the Circuit Breaker. They are widely available in the residential subzones except for Wenya which could due to there being very few residential buildings located there.
Out of these places indicated on the map, some of them are listed in the MOH’s Annex C2 of public places that the cases visited. This shows that essential amenities are hot spots during the Circuit Breaker that incur risks of getting infected during the infectious period. Hence, maintaining social distancing of at least 1m is a must when entering these hot spots, and it is necessary to resume the implementation of the SafeEntry contact tracing.
Proximity to Food Centres
During Circuit Breaker, food is only allowed to take away instead of dining in. Similar to the proximity to eldercare centres, the food centres are located in the southeast of Jurong West. One of the food centres is listed in MOH Annex C2 which is 505 Market and Food Centre at Jurong West Street 52.
Proximity to Parks
During Circuit Breaker, people are allowed to exercise outside but with social distancing measures and it is told to exercise alone. As such, most people have been exercising outside even before the Circuit Breaker will exercise in the parks located near their homes. However, parks could be potential clusters. Hence, it is necessary for the people to check-in into the parks using SafeEntry.
There are six parks in Jurong West where three of them are located in Yunnan — two of them could be shared between the residents of Yunnan and Wenya while one of them could be shared between residents of Yunnan and Jurong West Central. One park is located at Kian Teck which could be utilised by the residents of Jurong West Central and Boon Lay Place. Lastly, two parks are located in Taman Jurong which could be shared by the residents resided in the subzone, residents of Hong Kah, and residents of Boon Lay Place.
Proximity to Cycling Paths
Cycling paths or park connectors are located in Yunnan, Hong Kah, and Taman Jurong. In Yunnan, the cycling paths could be for the two parks located between Yunnan and Wenya. In Hong Kah, it provides high accessibility for the residents to cycle and get their necessities at the 505 Market and Food Centre at Jurong West Street 52. Lastly for Taman Jurong, similar to Hong Kah, the cycling paths could be for residents to cycle to get their necessities at Taman Jurong Shopping Centre, in particular to NTUC Fairprice supermarket.
Hence, there could be potential contacts to the cases who have visited both 505 Market and Food Centre, and Taman Jurong Shopping Centre’s NTUC Fairprice supermarket via these cycling paths in Hong Kah and Taman Jurong.
Proximity to MRT Stations
The three MRT stations in Jurong West are Pioneer, Boon Lay, and Lakeside stations. However, during Circuit Breaker, high likely there would be very few people boarding the train due to work-from-home basis. Furthermore, there is a long waiting time of more than or equal to 10 minutes, reduction of train frequency, and early closure of MRT stations. Hence, there would be a low risk of transmission during Circuit Breaker via MRTs in Jurong West.
Proximity to Bus Stops
There are many bus stops scattered throughout Jurong West except Wenya subzone and SAFTI subzone due to the lack of residential buildings and military facilities respectively.
However, this will explain more later in the Transport Analysis section of this report.
Network Analysis — Fastest Path
This section will only analyse on the fastest path between Jurong Point to Taman Jurong Shopping Centre where the cases visited both places on the same day, 20 May 2020, with a time gap of 1 hour. The assumptions are that it’s the same infected person who visited both places, and he/she walks at a speed of 5km/h from Jurong Point to Taman Jurong Shopping Centre.
The fastest path has a distance of about 2.3km and the time taken to walk this path is 27 minutes, which fulfils the 1-hour gap from 6pm to 7pm on 20 May 2020.
Based on the map, the fastest path did not pass by most residential buildings. However, there could be a risk of transmission to people living near Yung An Road in the case when these people left their homes to get necessities at Taman Jurong Shopping Centre during the 1-hour gap. Anyhow, it is highly recommended for these groups of people to stay at home for 14 days to monitor their health closely:
- People who visited Jurong Point on 20 May 2020 from 4.30pm to 6pm
- People who walked past the streets of the fastest path on the same day from 6pm to 7pm due to that there could be a possible contact with the infected case
- People who visited Taman Jurong Shopping Centre on the same day from 7pm to 8pm
Transport Analysis
In this analysis, I assumed that the cases live in Jurong West and they would have only boarded the buses from the bus stops that are at around 250m to 300m away from the affected locations where they get their necessities, and none of them boarded the MRT due to the low frequency of boarding the MRT stations.
From the above-identified bus stops and Boon Lay Bus Interchange (which is inside Jurong Point, one of the public places that cases visited), the following are the bus services (excluding City Direct buses, Express buses, and Night buses which these services are suspended during Circuit Breaker) that operate in those bus stops and bus interchange:
People who have boarded the above bus services at the approximate timings when the cases visited the listed public places of Jurong West should stay at home and monitor their health for 14 days from the day of the visit in order to reduce the risk to the public of being infected. Furthermore, the bus services that highlighted in orange operate towards Bukit Panjang as well, where both Hillion Mall and Bukit Panjang Plaza are located. These two malls are also in the list of public places that the cases visited during the infectious period. This shows that there could be a possibility that either the cases contacted each other which resulted in the virus transmission on the bus rides as well or it’s the same case who visited the two malls in Bukit Panjang and Jurong Point’s FairPrice Xtra due the same day (24 May 2020) and the timings are near to each other.
Key Takeaways
- Both subzones of Hong Kah and Yunnan have the highest proportion of elderly age groups who have a higher risk of developing serious health complications if infected with COVID-19
- Two of the Jurong West locations listed in MOH’s Annex C2 are markets which are also located in the subzones of Hong Kah and Yunnan
- A high density of residential population does not necessarily reflect that there is a high risk of transmitting the virus from human to human, and COVID-19 cases do not correlate with the population density
- There could be a high level of activities in both subzones of Hong Kah and Taman Jurong when the Circuit Breaker lifted
- Majority of the eldercare centres and food centres are located in the southeast of Jurong West
- There could be risks of infection while the residents went to their nearby CC to collect their reusable masks
- Majority of the essential amenities are located in the subzones of Hong Kah, Taman Jurong, Boon Lay Place, Jurong West Central, and Yunnan due to the availability of residential buildings
- Out of these residential subzones, public places that cases visited are located in the subzones of Hong Kah, Taman Jurong, Jurong West Central, and Yunnan
- On 20 May 2020, there could be a possibility that it’s the same case who visited Jurong Point’s NTUC Fairprice and Taman Jurong Shopping Centre’s NTUC Fairprice by walking past Jurong West Central 2, Boon Lay Way, Jalan Boon Lay, Chin Bee Drive, Corporation Drive, and Yung An Road between 6pm to 7pm
- Bus Service 180 and Bus Service 974 could be the potential bus services where either the cases spread to the other cases who visited Hillion Mall and Bukit Panjang Plaza, which both are located in Bukit Panjang, or it’s the same case who visited the two malls in Bukit Panjang and Jurong Point’s FairPrice Xtra due to the same day (24 May 2020) and the timings are near to each other.
Even though this mini-project has quite a number of limitations such as the utilisation of static datasets and the availability of the datasets, I hope this geographic analysis report can at least play a part in fighting against the spread of COVID-19 in our community. Preventing just one COVID-19 case can have an impact on reducing the total number of cases over time. Thank you for reading this report and please feel free to comment your thoughts and remarks. I’m happy to hear your thoughts so that we can know how this project can be improved and all of us can also learn from one another. Furthermore, I would like to thank Jill Toh, a friend of mine, for inspiring me to kick start this mini-project during this stay-home period.
Data Sources
2018 Population — https://www.singstat.gov.sg/-/media/files/publications/population/population2018.pdf
Buildings— https://download.bbbike.org/osm/bbbike/Singapore/Singapore.osm.shp.zip
Bus Stops — https://www.mytransport.sg/content/dam/datamall/datasets/Geospatial/BusStopLocation.zip
CHAS Clinics — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/chas-clinics
Community Centres/Clubs — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/community-clubs
Cycling Path — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/cycling-path-network
Eldercare — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/eldercare-services
Food Centres — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/nea-market-and-food-centre
Master Plan 2014 Subzone Boundary — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/master-plan-2014-subzone-boundary-no-sea
MRT Stations — https://www.mytransport.sg/content/dam/datamall/datasets/Geospatial/TrainStation.zip
Parks — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/nparks-parks
Pharmacies — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/retail-pharmacy-locations
Roads — https://www.mytransport.sg/content/dam/datamall/datasets/Geospatial/RoadSectionLine.zip
Supermarkets — https://data.gov.sg/dataset/supermarkets
